SpaceX IPO Market Signals Point to Higher Valuation Than Current Estimates

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is expected to set the final price for its Nasdaq IPO later today, with several blockchain based prediction and derivatives markets signaling a higher valuation than the company’s current estimated value of $1.77 trillion.

Data from onchain perpetual futures platforms Ventuals and trade.xyz, both operating on Hyperliquid, along with prediction market activity, suggest traders expect SpaceX’s valuation to land between $1.8 trillion and $2.1 trillion after listing.

Polymarket Predicts Potential $2 Trillion Valuation

On Polymarket, traders currently assign a 64% probability that SpaceX will finish its first trading day with a valuation above $2 trillion. However, expectations for a more dramatic rally remain limited, with only a 5% chance of the company closing above a $3 trillion valuation.

Bitcoin Traders Watching IPO Impact

The IPO is also being closely watched by crypto investors. Some market participants believe capital has recently shifted away from Bitcoin and other risk assets to participate in the SpaceX offering.

If that theory proves correct, analysts expect some of that capital could return to crypto markets after the IPO excitement and initial allocations fade.