TD Cowen Keeps $260 Strategy Target as Dilution Limits Upside Despite Higher Bitcoin Forecasts

TD Cowen has lifted its bitcoin forecasts but left its $260 price target on Strategy (MSTR) unchanged, arguing that dilution and the company’s financial obligations will hold back gains for common shareholders. Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete kept their Buy rating and said higher bitcoin prices should improve earnings potential. They warned, though, that preferred-stock repurchases and cash reserve building could eat into those benefits. Shares fell about 2.8% to $150, down nearly 5% year to date, though the stock has recovered from the stretch between late June and mid August when it struggled to climb past $100. The target implies roughly 73% upside.

Why More Bitcoin Does Not Guarantee Bigger Returns

The analysts explained that buying more bitcoin does not automatically lift per share value. Holders of Strategy’s debt and preferred shares, including STRC, STRF and STRD, have claims ahead of common stockholders, which makes bitcoin ownership per MSTR share “less robust.” The company is also putting part of its fundraising into cash reserves and support for its preferred shares instead of buying bitcoin right away. That may attract investors and fund later purchases but leaves less capital for bitcoin today.

Valuation Recovery and Bitcoin Price Targets

Strategy’s valuation has climbed back to about one times net asset value after dropping to 0.63 in June. Its holdings stand at an even 848,000 BTC, carrying roughly $4.5 billion in unrealized profit.

TD Cowen’s updated model sees bitcoin near $109,000 by the end of 2026 and $280,000 by 2029, a more bullish view than the $80,000 to $90,000 range other analysts expect for the fourth quarter. Bitcoin traded near $81,300 on Thursday and is down 9% for the year.