US House Republicans Move Toward Restrictions on Prediction Markets and Lawmaker Trading

House Republicans are preparing a summer vote that would expand restrictions on financial activity by members of Congress, including new rules targeting prediction market participation. The plan is to attach these measures to H.R. 7008, a long-stalled bill that already aims to ban congressional stock trading.

House Administration Committee Chair Bryan Steil said the updated proposal will combine stock trading limits with restrictions on how lawmakers use prediction markets. He also indicated that House leadership is expected to bring the measure to the floor for a vote in the coming months.

Limits on Election and Policy Bets

Under the proposed framework, lawmakers would not face a full ban on prediction markets, but their activity would be limited. Contracts tied to elections or public policy outcomes would be restricted, while markets linked to sports or entertainment events such as the Super Bowl would still be allowed.

Steil noted that Congress currently lacks clear rules on how members should engage with prediction platforms, saying the goal is not to target the technology itself but to define acceptable use for elected officials.

Rising Scrutiny of Prediction Markets

The push comes amid growing political and regulatory attention on platforms such as Polymarket, which gained visibility after users correctly predicted the 2024 US presidential election outcome. Recent reports also highlighted influencer promotions tied to payments, raising concerns about transparency and marketing practices in the sector.