US Midterm Elections 2026: Democrats Favored in the House, Senate Control Still Up for Grabs

Americans vote on Tuesday in a contest widely seen as a judgment on President Donald Trump’s first two years back in office. Polls and nonpartisan analysts lean toward Democrats taking the House, while the Senate is harder to call. Since World War Two, the president’s party has lost ground in nearly every midterm. Trump’s approval is near its lowest, with voters upset about the Iran war and higher fuel prices.

What Democrats Need to Win Control

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot. Democrats need to flip at least three House seats and four Senate seats. Of 47 competitive House races, they would need only 13 to secure a majority. In the Senate they must hold every seat they have, including Michigan, and win at least two states Trump carried by double digits.

Key Senate Races to Watch

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed faces Mike Rogers after Haley Stevens endorsed the Republican. Alaska’s race is tangled in a controversy over a third candidate sharing Dan Sullivan’s name, which Mary Peltola denies any part in. Texas pits James Talarico against Ken Paxton, backed by Elon Musk’s spending. Kansas, Maine, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and South Carolina are also tight.

Legal Fights and Political Stakes

Democrats warn Trump may contest losses, and the Justice Department has filed suits in Alaska and California. A Democratic Congress could open investigations and block appointments, including Supreme Court nominees.