US Senate Crypto Bill Faces Uncertain Future if Not Passed Before August

The proposed U.S. Senate crypto market structure bill could face serious delays or even fail entirely if lawmakers do not pass it before August, according to NYDIG Head of Research Greg Cipolaro.

In a research note published Friday, Cipolaro said the most realistic timeframe for the bill to move forward is between June and early August. He explained that while White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt recently said he hoped the bill could pass by July 4, that timeline may be more ambitious than realistic.

The legislation is considered one of the most important crypto bills in the United States this year because it would define how cryptocurrencies are regulated and determine which federal agencies oversee the industry.

Senate Vote Remains a Major Challenge

The bill recently cleared a delayed markup in the Senate Banking Committee, advancing to the Senate floor after a largely party-line vote. However, passing the bill in the full Senate may be difficult.

Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, meaning they need support from at least seven Democrats to reach the 60 votes required to avoid prolonged debate and move the bill forward quickly.

Some Democratic lawmakers have raised concerns that the legislation does not do enough to prevent financial crime, sanctions evasion and issues involving decentralized finance and government officials using crypto assets.

Midterm Elections Could Complicate the Bill

Cipolaro warned that Congress will enter a recess period from late July through early September. After lawmakers return, attention will likely shift toward the November midterm elections, making it harder for Senate leaders to schedule controversial votes.

He said that if the bill fails to pass before the election season intensifies, the best remaining option would be a post-election “lame-duck” session. That scenario would likely depend on Republicans keeping control of the Senate and Senate Majority Leader John Thune making the bill a priority.

Bitcoin Regulation and Institutional Adoption at Stake

According to Cipolaro, passing the legislation could provide major benefits for the crypto industry by creating legal clarity for digital assets. The bill would reportedly classify Bitcoin as a commodity regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, helping remove uncertainty for institutional investors.

He added that failure to pass the bill would leave the crypto industry operating under ongoing regulatory uncertainty and unclear jurisdiction between U.S. agencies.