Bitcoin Price Holds Above $81K as Derivatives Signal Weak Momentum

Bitcoin climbed 7% over the past week, breaking above $81,000 for the first time in more than three months and briefly approaching $82,000. Despite the price strength, market data shows limited enthusiasm from derivatives traders, raising questions about whether the rally can sustain momentum.

Bitcoin Derivatives Data Shows Cautious Sentiment

Futures markets remain subdued, with the two month basis rate near 1% annualized, well below the typical 4% to 8% range seen in neutral conditions. This suggests traders are not aggressively opening leveraged long positions. Options data reflects similar caution, with the 30-day delta skew hovering close to the 6% neutral threshold but still slightly bearish, indicating hesitation among professional investors.

Onchain Activity Decline vs Institutional Demand

Onchain metrics show weakening retail participation, with daily transfer volume dropping 54% to $4.1 billion and transaction counts nearing five-year lows. However, institutional demand remains strong, highlighted by $1.16 billion in inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs between Friday and Monday.

The absence of leveraged bullish positions may actually support further gains. If prices continue rising, short sellers could be forced to close positions, adding upward pressure and potentially extending Bitcoin’s rally beyond current levels.