Bitcoin Price Risks Deeper Drop as “Sell in May” Pattern Signals Weak Summer Outlook

Bitcoin is heading toward a negative May close, with prices falling roughly 10% after failing to break resistance near $83,000. The move has revived the well-known market saying “sell in May and go away,” a seasonal pattern often linked to weaker summer performance in risk assets.

BTC is currently trading near $75,850, and historical data shows that similar red Mays have often led to short term weakness.

Historical Data Shows Weak Post-May Performance

Bitcoin has posted losses in May during 2013, 2015, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023. On average, BTC returns one month after a red May have been around -10.1%, with three-month returns averaging about -3.3%.

However, longer term data shows mixed outcomes. Six months after a red May, Bitcoin has averaged strong gains, though results are heavily influenced by past outliers. Without extreme years, returns are closer to +12.9%.

Bear Market Risk Still Depends on Key Levels

Analysts note that in deeper bear cycles like 2018 and 2022, red Mays preceded sharper declines of over 20% in the following months. For now, Bitcoin remains above key cycle support near $60,000, meaning the broader trend is still uncertain.