Bitcoin Rally Depends on Return of US and South Korean Demand, Analysts Say

Bitcoin may be laying the groundwork for its next major rally, but analysts say one important condition still needs to be met before a sustained recovery can begin.

Recent market data shows that large Bitcoin traders, often referred to as whales, have started positioning for a potential rebound. Analysts tracking activity on Hyperliquid and Bitfinex noted that whale behavior on both platforms has become increasingly bullish despite Bitcoin recently falling to oct 2024 lows.

On Hyperliquid, major traders have shifted toward long positions, while on Bitfinex, a decline in long position crowding is viewed as a traditional signal that an uptrend could be forming.

Coinbase and Kimchi Premium Remain Key Indicators

While whale activity suggests improving sentiment, analysts argue that broader demand has not yet returned. Attention is now focused on the Coinbase Premium and the Kimchi Premium, two widely followed indicators that measure investor demand in the United States and South Korea.

The Coinbase Premium tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance. A negative reading generally indicates weaker demand from U.S. investors. Meanwhile, the Kimchi Premium reflects buying activity on South Korean exchanges.

Analysts believe both indicators need to turn positive before Bitcoin can establish a stronger and more sustainable upward trend.

Bitcoin Shows Signs of a Market Bottom

Several market observers also point to technical signals suggesting Bitcoin may be entering a bottoming phase. $BTC recently dropped below its 200-week simple moving average, a level historically associated with major bear market lows.

Some analysts note that previous market cycles, including the 2022 downturn, displayed similar patterns before significant recoveries began.

Market Watches for Confirmation

Although early signs of recovery are emerging, traders remain cautious. Whale accumulation and improving market structure have strengthened the bullish case, but analysts say stronger participation from U.S. and South Korean investors will likely determine whether Bitcoin can launch its next major rally.