Clarity Act Odds Jump to 43% on Betting Markets Amid Ethics Deal Reports

Prediction market traders sharply raised the odds of the Clarity Act passing into law this year after unverified reports surfaced that President Trump had agreed to an ethics provision that had stalled negotiations for months.

Betting Odds Surge Over the Weekend

The implied probability that the crypto market structure bill becomes law in 2026 climbed to about 43% on Polymarket Monday, up from 30% on Friday, which had marked the lowest level since trading on the market began in January. The sharp move followed a wave of reports suggesting the final roadblock in the bill’s negotiations had finally been resolved.

Reports Remain Unconfirmed

Despite the shift in betting odds, no bill text has been made public, and a source familiar with the matter said Democratic lawmakers have not yet seen the actual language. Neither the White House nor the offices of senators involved in negotiations had issued any comment as of Monday.

Ethics Provision at the Center of Talks

Ethics rules have remained the last major sticking point holding up the legislation, which would establish the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets, dividing regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The debate has focused on how much political figures and government officials should be allowed to profit from crypto while serving in office, an issue made more pointed by Trump’s memecoin ventures and his family’s stake in World Liberty Financial, which recent financial disclosures showed earned him millions.The Senate has until early August to hold a vote.

Crypto prices extended gains Monday as the reports spread, with Bitcoin trading near $66,350, up about 3.1% over 24 hours.