Bitcoin Rises Slightly After Core CPI Misses Forecast as Energy Costs Drive Headline Inflation

Bitcoin posted modest gains after fresh U.S. inflation data showed core prices rising less than expected in March. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2% month over month, below the 0.3% forecast and matching February’s reading. On a yearly basis, core CPI rose 2.6%, slightly under expectations of 2.7% and up from 2.5% previously.

Bitcoin had been trading near $72,000 ahead of the report but climbed to around $72,400 shortly after the data release, reflecting cautious optimism among traders.

Headline Inflation Driven by Energy Costs and Iran Conflict

Headline CPI increased 0.9% in March, in line with forecasts but significantly higher than February’s 0.3% rise. On a year-over-year basis, inflation reached 3.3%, matching expectations and rising from the prior 2.4%. Analysts attributed much of the increase to surging energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, which pushed oil costs higher and influenced broader market sentiment.

Federal Reserve Rate Expectations Remain Steady

Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in the near term. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, traders priced in roughly a 99% probability of no rate change at the late April meeting and a 97% chance of unchanged policy in mid-June.

Recent shifts in inflation expectations have led markets to move away from earlier predictions of multiple rate cuts, reinforcing uncertainty about the timing of future monetary policy adjustments.

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