Bitcoin UTXO Data Points To Capitulation Phase, Analyst Says

Bitcoin’s unspent transaction output data shows investors are capitulating, according to CryptoQuant . The ratio of UTXOs spent in profit versus at a loss has dropped to its lowest point this bear cycle, the first time this signal has triggered since the correction began. Darkfost says it reflects a broader wave of capitulation taking hold.

The last time this metric fell this low was mid-2023, when BTC traded near $26,000. “These periods have always been profitable for long-term investors,” Darkfost said, calling it the moment when most participants give up and lose interest. He cautioned the process takes time and plays out over a long timeframe.

Analyst DurdenBTC backed the signal, saying it has caught every cycle low since 2016, adding it will “still feel terrible for weeks” precisely because buying at this point isn’t comfortable.

Long-Term Holders Show Signs Of Giving Up

Darkfost separately noted long-term holders are entering capitulation, with their Spent Output Profit Ratio increasingly turning negative. He added the correction has largely been driven by short-term holders rapidly sending BTC to exchanges. Swissblock said Bitcoin has moved past its initial breakdown but remains in a “base formation phase,” with price stabilizing while momentum stays negative.

Geopolitical Risk Adds Pressure

Selling pressure could grow after the US military struck 10 Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz Saturday, responding to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship. BTC dipped to $59,800 early Sunday before recovering to around $60,100.