Bitcoin’s 45-Metric Price Basket Signals Longest Capitulation Since FTX Collapse

Bitcoin is stuck in its longest capitulation stretch since the FTX collapse in late 2022, according to onchain analytics firm Glassnode. The platform’s Cycle Position Heatmap, which blends 45 separate price indicators, has stayed in “capitulation” territory through most of 2026.

What The Heatmap Tracks

Built by Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze Kraft, the tool reads market health using short-term and long-term holder profitability, along with coin dormancy. He noted the current reading sits in its coldest stretch since FTX, though not yet the uniform blue seen at the 2022 bottom near $15,600.

On-Chain Activity Still Strong

Glassnode’s weekly Market Pulse report found daily active addresses and transfer volumes rising above normal ranges. Separately, data showed sub-1 BTC transactions spiking after the Coldcard wallet exploit, nearly matching November 2022 levels.