Bitcoin’s Bear Markets Are Getting Milder, but Bull Runs May Shrink Too

Bitcoin fell about 55% from its October 2025 peak in its latest bear cycle. That is steep by most standards, but mild for bitcoin. After hitting nearly $69,000 in November 2021, it dropped below $16,000 a year later as rising rates, crypto bankruptcies and the FTX collapse hit the market, a fall of more than 75%.

Earlier cycles saw declines of 80% or more. Rebounds were just as wild: from under $4,000 in early 2019 to almost $69,000 in 2021, then past $100,000 after U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs opened the door to more investors.

Do Bitcoin ETFs and Institutions Reduce Volatility?

Ryan Rasmussen, director and head of research at Bitwise, credits spot ETFs, launched in January 2024. Before them, ownership leaned toward retail investors, crypto-native funds and tactical traders. Advisers may hold around 2% in bitcoin, while crypto-focused retail investors can hold 20% or 30%. So a 50% crash barely dents an adviser’s portfolio.

Wall Street Adoption Is Still Slow

Rasmussen said professional interest in Bitwise stayed high this downturn, unlike 2022, when it fell off a cliff. Still, advisers often need about eight meetings, sometimes nearly two years, before allocating. Ferraioli expects shallower bear markets and less explosive bull markets as bitcoin matures.