Bitwise Now Sees Bitcoin Near $1.6 Million Within Ten Years

Bitwise has lifted its decade long forecast for bitcoin from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, which implies growth of 34.3% a year. The figure comes from its 2027 long-term capital market assumptions, released Wednesday. By comparison, the average projections from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock and Vanguard point to 6.7% a year for US stocks and 10.8% for private equity, the next best asset class.

How Bitwise Reached Its Number

The firm estimates how large certain markets will be in 2036 and then gives bitcoin a slice of each. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said those slices were left alone, while the projected size of the global store of value market rose from $91 trillion to $110 trillion and the institutional investment market from $216 trillion to $303 trillion. The base case gives bitcoin 25% of the first and 1% of the second. The bear case lands at $130,686 with a 2.5% share, and the bull case reaches $3.67 million at a 50% share.

Demand Versus Limited Supply

Using Boston Consulting Group data showing institutions control about $147 trillion, and assuming a 1% to 5% bitcoin allocation, Bitwise expects demand between $1.5 trillion and $7.4 trillion. New mining supply is only about $14 billion a year, and 20.1 million of the 21 million coins already exist.

Bitcoin Drawdown and Volatility Outlook

Bitwise points out that the roughly 53% fall from the October 2025 peak above $126,000 is shallower than the 86%, 84% and 77% drops after earlier cycle highs. Price has recovered about 40% from the June low near $58,000 and now sits above $80,000. Hougan admitted that much store of value demand went to gold and ETF buying slowed, yet institutions kept adding exposure. Bitcoin’s share of that market has grown from under 1% to above 5%.