Brazil Votes in Tight Presidential Runoff Between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro

Brazilians went to the polls on Sunday in a runoff that could swing Latin America’s largest country sharply rightward and bring it closer to the United States. The race pits leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the 45 year old son of convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio surprised pollsters at the start of the month by leading the first round with 47% of the vote, while Lula took 45%. Polls now show the two practically tied. History favors Bolsonaro, since no candidate has ever won the presidency after finishing second in round one. His first round showing also sent Brazil’s markets and currency higher on hopes of pro business reforms.

Trump Factor and US Tensions in the Brazil Election

A Bolsonaro win would add to a run of right wing victories in Latin America by candidates friendly to Donald Trump, while a fourth term for Lula would disappoint Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security. Reuters reported Saturday on a State Department effort to help return the Bolsonaro family to power, and Washington denies meddling. Trump calls Jair Bolsonaro’s coup conviction a witch hunt and placed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025, later softened, then added new levies this year over trade practices. Lula says the closeness between the Trump team and the Bolsonaros is an attempt to sway the vote and calls the tariffs bullying.

Key Issues: Cost of Living, Crime and Corruption

Corruption scandals, economic worry and gang violence have shaped the campaign. Lula has struggled to win over voters facing high living costs and heavy household debt, despite falling inequality and unemployment. Flavio Bolsonaro has promised a tough approach to crime, including maximum security prisons and chemical castration for serious sexual offenders, and has pledged to free his father if elected. Voting in Rio de Janeiro, he urged people to turn out come rain or shine, while Lula was due to vote near Sao Paulo.