CFTC Warns Prediction Markets Against Using American-Style Betting Odds

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has warned prediction market platforms to avoid using American-style gambling odds, according to Bloomberg, as the agency works to assert its authority over the growing prediction markets industry.

Warning Targets Odds Display Format

The CFTC sent letters to regulated entities instructing them to comply with the law and avoid deceptive practices in listing, advertising, or soliciting bets, Bloomberg reported Friday. American-style moneyline odds show potential winnings on a $100 bet using plus or minus signs, while prediction markets typically display prices in cents that directly reflect implied probability. The CFTC cited a study suggesting American-style odds encourage more risk-taking behavior among bettors. Kalshi confirmed it would comply with the guidance by the given deadline, while Polymarket and the CFTC did not respond to requests for comment.

Part of a Broader Jurisdiction Push

CFTC Chair Michael Selig has spent the past year asserting the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, even suing multiple states to defend that position, while also pursuing formal rulemaking efforts.

States have pushed back, arguing these platforms violate local gaming and sports betting laws. Meanwhile, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have grown into multibillion-dollar businesses and have publicly supported CFTC oversight. Separately, senators and tribal gaming regulators have recently pushed for legislative language preserving state authority over sports betting within crypto market structure legislation.