Clarity Act Faces Likely Defeat As Senate Vote Nears Without Last Minute Deal

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act appears headed for a difficult opening vote Tuesday afternoon, with neither party signaling enough movement to secure the 60 votes needed to advance the crypto market structure bill.

Both Sides Blame Each Other For Stalled Talks

Republicans released what they called a final version of the bill over the weekend, prompting a Democratic counteroffer that Republicans dismissed as unchanged from earlier demands. A leading Republican negotiator said Democrats hadn’t moved at all despite Republican concessions across the bill. On the other side, the Senate Banking Committee’s top Democrat argued the Republican revisions weren’t negotiated with Democrats at all and mostly reworded existing problems rather than solving them.

Odds Of Passage Seen As Low

Policy analysts widely expect the bill to fail its opening procedural vote, with one Washington research firm estimating roughly 60% odds of failure. Some Republicans remain uneasy too, particularly over unresolved concerns from banking groups about stablecoin rewards potentially pulling money from bank deposits. Even if lawmakers oppose the bill’s current language, some could still vote yes simply to keep the process moving toward further amendments and debate.

Crypto industry groups have urged senators to at least deliver a yes vote to preserve the opportunity for continued negotiation.

What Failure Would Mean

If the vote fails as expected, it would likely end this legislative session’s chance at passing crypto market structure rules, especially with Democrats potentially regaining House control after November’s elections. Regulators including the SEC and CFTC are expected to continue advancing their own crypto rules regardless of the outcome, though officials acknowledge lasting regulatory certainty ultimately requires congressional action.