Coldcard Hack Losses Remain Uncertain as Investigators Use Different Tracing Methods

Investigators are struggling to pin down an exact loss figure from the Coldcard hardware wallet hack, with blockchain analytics firms reporting significantly different totals based on their methodology. CryptoQuant currently places confirmed losses at 1,432 Bitcoin, while Galaxy Research and TRM Labs both estimate substantially higher figures, illustrating how difficult it is to measure theft from self-custody wallets compared to centralized exchange hacks, where a complete list of affected accounts typically exists.

Galaxy Combines Victim Reports With Pattern Analysis

Galaxy Research’s head of research said the firm’s high-confidence minimum currently stands at 1,730 Bitcoin, noting the number could rise further as more victims come forward. According to Galaxy, more than 450 BTC has been directly confirmed through victim reports, while those same reports helped identify additional affected wallets bringing the corroborated total above 730 BTC. The firm said it continues withholding other suspected losses that lack sufficient verification.

CryptoQuant Takes More Conservative Approach

CryptoQuant’s research team said its methodology starts with public victim reports, including wallet addresses or transaction details, which are then cross checked against known attack patterns onchain. This more cautious approach, aimed at avoiding false positives, results in a lower confirmed total that the firm describes as a floor rather than a final number. Researchers agree that because the stolen funds belonged to individuals rather than a centralized platform, the true total will likely always remain an estimate based on what victims choose to disclose.