Galaxy Digital Slashes CLARITY Act Passage Odds to Just 10%

Galaxy Digital has sharply cut its forecast for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing in 2026, now placing the odds at just 10%. The firm’s head of research pointed to a narrow window for action, noting the Senate will have only two to three weeks to work on the bill when lawmakers return in mid-September.

Multiple Unresolved Issues Remain

According to the analysis, several political sticking points still need to be worked through, including ethics rules governing government officials’ involvement in crypto and pushback from banks over provisions allowing stablecoin yield. Unless a procedural vote happens immediately when the Senate reconvenes, the bill would need to dominate nearly the entire working session just to have a chance of passing.

Odds Have Fallen Steadily for Months

This marks the latest in a series of downgrades. The estimate stood at 75% in May, dropped to 60% in early June, was lowered again to 50% later that month, and has now fallen to just 10%. The bill cleared an initial Senate committee vote in May, but has faced resistance from most Democrats and the banking industry, who argue it would let crypto firms offer stablecoin yields without the same oversight banks face. Earlier this year, more than 200 crypto companies and organizations had urged the Senate to pass the legislation.