Hotter Inflation Tilts Fed Odds Toward a Bigger Hike While Bitcoin Holds Its Ground

October consumer prices climbed 0.4%, a notch above what economists penciled in, even though September’s jump was larger at 0.6%. Before the release, futures gave a quarter point December hike a 96.3% chance. Afterward that slipped to 85.3%, with 14.7% now betting on a half point move.

What Drove the Monthly Increase

Government figures show housing costs rose 0.3% and accounted for more than a third of the total gain. Food added 0.5%. Energy slowed to 0.7% from 5.2%, yet economist Robin Brooks warned that October marked the top of this year’s second oil shock, and that it will likely feed into core prices later.

Bitcoin Price Dips Near $73,500, Then Recovers

Bitcoin fell to $73,518 as US trading began, close to Sunday’s low and the weakest level since Aug. 21. Buyers stepped in, and the coin climbed back above $74,000.

Nasdaq and Nvidia Feel the Pressure

The Nasdaq Composite opened 0.7% lower before regaining its footing, while Nvidia lost nearly 4% as its board examines a possible foreign intelligence effort aimed at CEO Jensen Huang. Mosaic Asset Company pointed to a put to call ratio above 1.0, higher than during the April 2025 selloff, and suggested that kind of panic can mark a long term bottom.