Indonesia Blocks Polymarket After Bets on President Prabowo’s Exit

Indonesia has blocked access to prediction market platform Polymarket after users began placing bets on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before completing his term.

The country’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs announced the restriction, describing Polymarket as an online gambling platform operating under the appearance of a prediction market. Officials said the decision was made to enforce Indonesian laws that prohibit gambling activities.

Government official Alexander Sabar said the country would not permit any form of online gambling, arguing that platforms involving speculation on uncertain events violate national regulations.

Political Prediction Market Draws Government Attention

The move came shortly after Polymarket introduced a market allowing users to bet on whether President Prabowo would step down before specific dates, including May 31, June 30, and Dec. 31, 2026, despite his official term running until October 2029.

The prediction market generated more than $46,000 in trading volume. Traders placed only a small chance on an early exit, with odds reaching 1% by the end of May, 2% by June and around 18% by the end of 2026.

While authorities did not directly mention the political betting market in their official statement, officials broadly accused Polymarket of facilitating illegal gambling practices and said the block was necessary to protect digital users, especially younger audiences.

Growing Global Pressure on Prediction Markets

Indonesia now joins a growing list of countries increasing scrutiny of prediction market platforms. Supporters argue these markets help measure public sentiment and forecast events, while critics say they closely resemble gambling and may create risks related to market manipulation and insider activity.

Polymarket already faces restrictions in more than 30 jurisdictions as regulators worldwide continue to debate how prediction markets should be classified and monitored.