Putin Likely to Escalate Ukraine War Despite Trump’s Peace Push, Sources Say

Russian President Vladimir Putin is rejecting calls to negotiate peace with Ukraine and is more likely to escalate the conflict, according to three sources close to the Kremlin cited by Reuters. Ukraine’s recent drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and ports appear to have hardened his resolve rather than pushed him toward talks.

Sources Describe “High Probability” of Escalation

Two sources speaking anonymously said Putin is likely to intensify the war, now in its fifth year, with one describing a “high probability” of escalation in the coming months. This comes despite President Donald Trump saying Monday that Putin wants the war to end and that a resolution is “closer than people realize.” Trump spoke separately by phone with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week, and met Zelenskiy at the NATO summit Wednesday.

Donbas Seen as Non-Negotiable Objective

One source said Putin has “dug in his heels” over capturing the rest of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, reportedly rebuking advisers who suggested a ceasefire along current front lines. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia remains open to a peaceful resolution but has the capability to continue the operation independently. A senior Ukrainian official said Kyiv’s intelligence suggests Putin is preparing further military steps, potentially including operations beyond Ukraine’s borders.

Fuel Shortages and Battlefield Struggles

Ukrainian strikes on refineries and ports have caused significant fuel shortages inside Russia, and Putin’s approval rating has slipped to its lowest point since 2022. Russian forces have struggled to advance along the 1,200-km front line this year, though Putin claimed on July 3 that Russian troops had taken the city of Kostiantynivka, a claim Ukraine disputes.