Judge Pauses CFTC Case Against Soldier Over Prediction Market Profits

A federal judge in New York has stayed a civil case brought by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission against a US Army Special Forces soldier accused of profiting from prediction market bets tied to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s removal. The ruling grants a request filed by prosecutors in July, pausing the regulatory case until the related criminal proceeding concludes.

Soldier Accused of Using Nonpublic Information

The case centers on Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly earned more than $400,000 through Polymarket event contracts predicting Maduro’s ouster. According to federal prosecutors, Van Dyke was involved in the operation targeting Maduro earlier this year, leading to allegations that he used insider knowledge from that involvement to place profitable bets on the outcome.

Case Could Set Precedent for Prediction Markets

Both the criminal and civil cases were filed in April and carry potential implications for how lawmakers and government officials are treated when using prediction markets. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty and has separately moved to dismiss the criminal charges, arguing among other things that regulatory treatment of prediction market contracts as financial swaps remains legally unclear. A criminal trial could begin as early as late 2026 or stretch into early 2027.