Kalshi Denies CFTC Investigation as Questions Grow Over Unusual Ether Perpetual Trading

Kalshi says the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has not reached out to it and that it does not believe any formal examination is underway. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the data patterns in question are typical of liquidity incentive programs and common in financial markets. She added that Kalshi sends its data to the regulator every day, so a routine review would not be unusual. The CFTC had not responded to a request for comment.

Unusual Trade Patterns in Kalshi Ether and Bitcoin Perpetual Markets

A Tuesday report found that most volume in Kalshi’s bitcoin and ether perpetual markets came from identically sized trades. Many ether trades clustered near $5,500, while bitcoin trades sat around $2,500 or $5,000. The Wall Street Journal later reported that the CFTC was reviewing activity after nearly one million ether trades of similar size, and would decide whether to open an enforcement probe.

Researcher Findings on Volume and Open Interest

Beni, a co-founder of research firm Stealth Neolab, said the ether perpetual saw about $539 million in 24-hour volume against only $3.1 million in open interest. He later found $5,500 trades made up 48% to 58% of notional volume on four days in September, using Kalshi’s public API.

Liquidity Incentives and Wash Trading Concerns

Diana said the liquidity incentive program, which rewards participants for placing orders, explains the bursts of similar trades. Asked about wash trading, meaning transactions that create the look of activity without real change in exposure, she said Kalshi has “tons of tools” and a full surveillance team. She also dismissed online talk as rumors seeded by competitors.