Mizuho Warns AI Assistants Could Pull Billions Out of Circle’s USDC Business

Circle shares ended Monday down 6% at $79, after Mizuho trimmed its price target to $43 from $45 and kept an Underperform rating. That target sits roughly 46% under the current price. The analysts argued that AI personal assistants now pose a marked threat to the company’s revenue over the medium term.

How AI Agents Could Shrink USDC Supply

In Mizuho’s tests, agents such as Muse tended to steer savers away from USDC and toward insured fiat options like SoFi savings accounts, which pay interest. Even when a user insisted on staying in crypto, the agents appeared to favor other platforms over Circle’s own. That matters because only about 17% of USDC sat on Circle’s platform in the second quarter, earning nothing, while Coinbase held 30% and other venues held 53%.

Faster Adoption Scenario

If agents spread quickly, about $7 billion could flow into fiat products and $2 billion into stablecoins that pay more. USDC’s market cap could drop by up to $9 billion, and reserve revenue could fall 18%. Across scenarios, Mizuho sees a 10% to 20% revenue risk.

Updated Circle Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts

Mizuho now expects average USDC in circulation of $101 billion in 2027, down from $108 billion. Reserve revenue estimates slip 5% to $4.1 billion, and adjusted EBITDA falls to $603 million from $635 million.