Prediction Market Volume Hits $25.7B as Retail Traders Drive Repeat Activity Growth

Global prediction markets recorded $25.7 billion in monthly trading volume in March, according to a report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket. The study shows a major behavioral shift, with users increasingly returning to trade repeatedly rather than placing single-event bets.

Retail participants, defined as traders with less than $10,000 in volume, made up over 80% of total activity. Market data aligns with Dune Analytics, which reported $23.7 billion in March volume, rising sharply from $1.9 billion a year earlier.

Sports and Politics Lead Market Activity

Sports markets dominated with $10.1 billion in trading volume, driven by constant global events. Political markets followed with $5 billion, reflecting sustained interest in real-world outcomes.

Average user activity also increased significantly, with active trading days rising from 2.5 to 9.9 per user in the first quarter, showing deeper engagement across multiple categories.

Onchain Platforms and Industry Expansion

Polygon supports Polymarket’s infrastructure, enabling decentralized event-based trading. Centralized competitors like Kalshi operate differently, highlighting two emerging models in the sector.

Industry forecasts suggest prediction markets could reach $240 billion annually this year, with long-term estimates approaching trillion-dollar scale as adoption expands.