Republican Lawmaker Proposes Ban on Political Bets by Members of Congress

Republican Representative Bryan Steil has introduced new legislation aimed at preventing members of Congress from using prediction markets to profit from political or policy-related information.

The proposed bill, called the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, would ban lawmakers, their spouses, and dependent children from placing wagers on political outcomes, government actions, or public policy decisions through platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Under the proposal, anyone violating the rules could face penalties worth $2,000 or 10% of the value of the prohibited trade.

White House Officials Not Included in Proposal

The legislation does not prevent lawmakers from using prediction market platforms entirely. Sports related contracts and other non-political event wagers would still be allowed under the proposal.

The bill has also drawn attention because it does not include White House officials, including President Donald Trump or Vice President JD Vance. Donald Trump Jr. currently serves as an adviser to prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.

Prediction Markets Face Growing Regulatory Pressure

The proposal follows growing concerns in Washington over insider trading risks linked to prediction markets. Public debate increased after reports that a soldier allegedly earned more than $400,000 by correctly predicting the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission continues arguing that prediction market contracts should be regulated as financial swaps under federal law. Legal disputes involving state regulators and prediction market companies are still ongoing and could eventually reach the US Supreme Court.