Treasury Yields Steady as US-Iran Ceasefire Falters, Inflation Data on Deck

Treasury yields stayed largely flat on Monday even as the ceasefire between the United States and Iran showed fresh signs of strain over the weekend. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key gauge for U.S. borrowing costs, held steady at 4.473%. The 2-year yield, which tracks Federal Reserve policy expectations more closely, edged up slightly to 4.223%, while the 30-year bond yield stayed near 5.071%.

Strikes Deepen Standoff Over Hormuz

The renewed tension followed an Iranian strike on a commercial ship, prompting fresh U.S. military action. Iran responded with attacks on American bases across Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, and Qatar, further complicating the interim peace deal reached last month aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices climbed on the news, with Brent crude up 2.8% to $78.11 a barrel and WTI rising more than 2.5% to $73.25.

Investors Turn Attention to Inflation Data

Markets are now focused on a busy economic calendar this week. Core inflation figures are due Tuesday, alongside Kevin Warsh’s first congressional appearance as Fed chair. Consumer sentiment data follows Friday, offering a clearer read on household finances. Resonate Wealth Partners’ Alex Guiliano said the key question is whether upcoming reports confirm resilient consumer spending or show growing strain from geopolitical risk and high rates.