Trump Considers Renewing Project Freedom as US-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Slip

President Donald Trump said he is considering bringing back “Project Freedom” in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a possible shift toward stronger military involvement as tensions with Iran continue. Speaking in an interview, Trump indicated the operation could become part of a “larger” regional effort, raising new questions about the future of diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran.

Project Freedom was originally launched to secure commercial shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit corridor. The mission had reportedly slowed during diplomatic engagement efforts linked to Iran’s nuclear program. However, renewed geopolitical tensions following US and Israeli military actions earlier this year have complicated negotiations.

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Fall

Prediction market sentiment weakened after Trump’s remarks. The probability of a US-Iran nuclear agreement by June 30 dropped to 29.5%, down from 32% a day earlier. Meanwhile, expectations for a deal before May 31 declined sharply to 11.5% from 20%.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions Raise Market Concerns

Analysts believe renewed military operations could reduce diplomatic momentum. A stronger US security presence in the Strait of Hormuz may increase regional pressure, while also lowering expectations for a near-term nuclear agreement between the two countries.