Trump Tariffs Cool Quebec’s Appetite for Quick Independence Push

Trump’s trade war with Canada is reshaping political sentiment in Quebec, where support for independence has fallen to around 30%, its lowest level in decades, even as the province faces significant economic damage from US tariffs.

Steel Industry Feels Direct Impact

When Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian steel last year, a Quebec factory owned by Heico Companies lost roughly a third of its bolt and fastener orders within a week. The company froze hiring, closed a regional plant, and laid off dozens of workers as part of 140 total job cuts, mostly concentrated in Quebec. Before the tariffs, about 90% of the factory’s products were shipped to the US.

Separatist Party Delays Independence Push

Despite holding a slim polling lead ahead of Quebec’s provincial election by October 5, Parti Quebecois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has ruled out pursuing a third independence referendum while Trump remains in office. He said Quebec’s political future should not be shaped by American political turmoil or fear-driven campaigns.

Trump Remains Deeply Unpopular in Quebec

According to Angus Reid polling data, only 10% of Quebecers view Trump favorably, making him particularly disliked in what is considered Canada’s most progressive province. Analysts note his tariffs and rhetoric, including annexation threats, have unexpectedly strengthened Canadian unity rather than fueling separatist momentum.

Not All Separatists Are Convinced

Some independence advocates argue Quebec’s interests still require full sovereignty, pointing to federal funding decisions affecting French language programming as evidence Canada cannot adequately represent the province. Others, including local farmers, argue a unified national response to US tariffs is more urgent than pursuing independence right now.