US Jobs Report Beats Forecasts as Traders Weigh a December Fed Rate Hike

October’s employment data came in much stronger than economists expected, and it lands at a tense moment for stocks and crypto. Payrolls grew by 165,000 against a forecast of 65,000, while unemployment slipped to 4.1% from the 4.2% that analysts had penciled in.

Why This Jobs Report Matters for Markets

Investors had been bracing for the release after a bruising week. The Nasdaq dropped 5.52% on Thursday, driven by fears over AI regulation after the midterms, and Bitcoin slid under $76,000. Treasury yields fell to their lowest since early September, and the odds of a December rate hike eased to 68%. The previous payrolls reading, for September, was 29,000, so this result is a sizable jump.

Wages Are the Number to Watch

Economists said wage growth could matter most. Annual gains were expected to fall under 3% for the first time in almost five and a half years. Barclays noted that unemployment at 4.1% would keep a December hike alive. Hot hiring combined with firm wages could lift hike expectations, yields and the dollar, which tends to pressure tech shares and Bitcoin.

What Comes Next for the Fed

softer report would given stocks and crypto room to bounce, but the strong headline numbers point the other way. Goldman Sachs still expects a December hike. Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders argues the Fed would likely need a much weaker jobs report before holding rates again.