Regulatory clarity and global adoption drive bullish outlook for digital dollar alternatives
Citigroup has raised its forecast for the global stablecoin market, projecting a base case of $1.9 trillion and a bull case of $4 trillion by 2030, citing rapid sector growth in 2025.
Strong 2025 momentum lifts projections
In a research note released this week, Citi analysts said the pace of adoption over the last six months forced them to revise earlier forecasts of $1.6 trillion (base) and $3.7 trillion (bull). With stablecoin capitalization now above $287 billion, growth is accelerating thanks to regulatory frameworks and increasing integration into global finance.
The analysts emphasized that stablecoins are not likely to disrupt the banking sector, as some critics claim, but instead will help reshape it. “Skeptics once again proclaim that banks will be disintermediated, but we do not believe crypto will burn down the existing system. Rather, it is helping us reimagine it,” Citi wrote.
Annual stablecoin settlements have surpassed $18 trillion, exceeding volumes handled by traditional networks such as Visa and Mastercard, according to data from Delphi Digital. Analysts say this milestone highlights the efficiency and growing reliance on blockchain-based settlement infrastructure.
US leads, others follow
The passage of the GENIUS Act in the United States earlier this year established a regulatory foundation for stablecoins, spurring issuance and adoption. The US Treasury has since positioned stablecoins as a tool to extend dollar dominance globally, aligning with President Trump’s broader strategy to cement US leadership in the digital asset economy.
Meanwhile, other sovereign governments are testing stablecoins tied to local currencies. China, long resistant to crypto, is now considering a yuan-backed offshore stablecoin for international trade. AnchorX recently launched the first such token, restricted to cross-border commercial use.
With global institutions, governments, and private issuers now converging on stablecoin development, Citi’s revised forecast signals the sector’s pivotal role in the future of finance. The $4 trillion projection underscores not just speculative growth but a shift toward stablecoins as a mainstream financial utility.
Disclaimer
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