10 Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 6% as Bitcoin Bulls Stay Calm

The 10-year Treasury yield, now near 5.23% and the highest since 2007, could climb toward 6% in coming months, according to analysts. That level was last seen in 2000.

Why Rising Yields Don’t Always Hurt Bitcoin

What drives yields higher matters more than the number itself. When the Federal Reserve tightens policy, bitcoin tends to suffer, as seen in 2022 when yields doubled and bitcoin fell 64%. But when yields rise due to fiscal worries and a higher term premium, the pattern flips. Coindesk reported Since late 2023, yields have risen 135 basis points while bitcoin has roughly doubled to $86,000.

Deficits and Debt Drive the Forecast

Analysts point to yields sitting below nominal GDP growth and far below the pace of federal debt growth, meaning bondholders aren’t fully compensated yet. Rising deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy borrowing by AI-focused tech companies are adding competition in debt markets, pushing yields up further.

If the Fed resumes aggressive rate hikes instead, the 2022 playbook could return, putting renewed pressure on bitcoin.