Bitcoin Approaches Long-Term Support Level Tracked by Fidelity Since 2015

Bitcoin is drifting toward a support level that Fidelity’s global macro team has monitored for nearly a decade. Jurrien Timmer, the firm’s director of global macro, says the cryptocurrency is approaching the lower boundary of a pricing model he has followed since 2015, currently placing that support line near $58,000 while bitcoin trades close to $62,700.

Understanding the Power Law Model

The framework Timmer uses plots bitcoin’s full price history on a logarithmic scale, bounded by three separate curves: an upper resistance line, a middle trendline, and a lower support line. That bottom line has historically marked every major low bitcoin has experienced since 2015, making it a closely watched indicator among analysts tracking long-term cycles.

Signs Point to an Accumulation Phase

A separate measure within the model tracks how far bitcoin trades above or below its long-term trendline. That gap has widened to negative 56%, a level the model identifies as an accumulation zone, matching patterns seen during the 2018 and 2022 market bottoms. A similar signal appears in the bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which has dropped to roughly negative 100% over the past year.

Despite the historical pattern, Timmer stopped short of calling a bottom. He pointed out that the speculative enthusiasm that drove bitcoin above $120,000 last year has largely faded, while global money supply growth continues to slow. Without renewed liquidity in the market, he sees no immediate trigger for a rebound.

Capital Rotating Elsewhere

Timmer noted that short-term traders have already shifted their money elsewhere, moving first from bitcoin into gold, and now from gold into semiconductor stocks, which he says is where investor interest is currently concentrated. His outlook suggests bitcoin could remain near this support zone for an extended period rather than rebounding quickly.