Bitcoin’s “500-Day Rule” Faces Its Toughest Test Yet

A once reliable bitcoin trading pattern tied to the halving cycle is signaling another buying window, but experts warn this time could be different.

What the 500-Day Rule Says

Popularized by Pantera Capital in 2023, the rule suggests buying bitcoin about 500 days before the halving and selling roughly 500 days after has historically produced strong gains, in some cycles as high as 34 times the original investment. Based on the April 2024 halving, the next buy signal points to late November, with a sell target around mid-2029.

Why Experts Are Skeptical This Cycle

Analysts including Mati Greenspan and Jason Fernandes argue spot bitcoin ETFs now drive price action more than mining supply cuts, since daily ETF flows often dwarf newly mined bitcoin. Still, Sigma Capital’s Vineet Budki believes the four-year cycle remains structurally intact.