Clarity Act Odds Hit Record Low as Senate Talks Stall Over Ethics Dispute

Traders on prediction platform Polymarket now give the Clarity Act just a 32% chance of becoming law by the end of the year, marking the lowest odds since betting on the bill began in January. That figure represents a drop of roughly 30 percentage points from when the market launched, and a steep decline from a high near 82% reached in February. Odds have fallen steadily since May as the Senate’s legislative window has narrowed.

Ethics Provision Remains the Key Sticking Point

Behind the scenes, lawmakers have continued working on updated legislative language, though it still lacks Democratic support. Senator Ruben Gallego, one of two Democrats who helped advance the bill out of committee, has said repeatedly he won’t back it on the Senate floor without a bipartisan ethics provision addressing conflicts of interest between public officials and digital assets. Other Democrats have echoed similar concerns. Following a recent White House meeting between the president and Senate Republicans, no public details emerged, and no ethics language has surfaced.

What the Bill Would Actually Do

If passed, the Clarity Act would create a federal framework separating which digital assets fall under the Securities and Exchange Commission versus the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Supporters say this would replace years of regulation carried out through enforcement actions with clear rules set by Congress. Industry leaders reinforced this argument during a recent House hearing, with executives from several companies testifying that regulatory uncertainty has delayed investment and pushed firms to consider operating outside the U.S. One speaker pointed to a past SEC lawsuit against a wireless network project as an example of how unclear rules stalled growth.

Time Running Short in Congress

With lawmakers approaching their August recess and only a limited number of legislative days remaining afterward, traders appear increasingly doubtful the bill will reach the president’s desk before year’s end.