Coinbase’s Q2 Miss Splits Wall Street as Analysts Debate Growth Strategy

Coinbase shares fell to their lowest level in roughly two and a half years on Friday morning after weaker than expected second-quarter results, though the stock later trimmed losses to trade near $150, leaving it down about 57% over the past year.

Analysts Split on Cause of the Miss

Wall Street broadly agreed the quarter fell short of expectations, but views diverged on whether the shortfall reflects a weak crypto market or deeper issues with Coinbase’s growth strategy. JPMorgan pointed to a tough crypto environment and limited earnings upside from newer products, cutting its price target to $148 from $196 while keeping an Overweight rating. The bank said segments like prediction markets and tokenized equities have yet to meaningfully contribute to earnings, with softer trading volumes weighing on both transaction and subscription revenue.

Bernstein Backs Long-Term Strategy Despite Competition

Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating and $330 price target, the highest among reviewed forecasts, arguing Coinbase’s push to become an “everything exchange” remains the right approach even as investors seek stronger execution.

Coinbase noted competition is intensifying, particularly in prediction markets, where Coinbase’s business has scaled to $100 million in annualized revenue after doubling last quarter, while Robinhood’s comparable business has already reached roughly $600 million annually through its Rothera exchange.

Mixed Outlooks From Mizuho and Benchmark

Mizuho lowered its price target to $155 from $200, maintaining a Neutral rating and warning that Robinhood is becoming the preferred platform for mainstream retail crypto traders.