Fed Study Finds Bitcoin’s Past Gains Push More People to Buy Crypto

A new Federal Reserve study offers hard data on something crypto traders have long suspected: past price gains alone are enough to pull new buyers into the market.

How the Experiment Worked

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ran a 2025 survey experiment, splitting participants into a control group and six test groups. Each test group saw different information, including bitcoin’s prior year return, a bitcoin price chart, S&P 500 performance, GameStop data, or the Fed’s inflation forecast. One group learned bitcoin had returned 14.3% over the previous year.

Ownership Jumped After Seeing Bitcoin’s Returns

Households shown bitcoin’s return or its price chart were 2.41 to 2.48 percentage points more likely to report owning crypto in a later survey, a roughly 23% increase from the 11% baseline ownership rate. The study tracked 5,352 respondents across three quarters of 2025. These same households also raised their desired crypto allocation by about 2 percentage points, mainly by shifting money away from cash and savings.

Why This Matters for Crypto Markets

The effect was strongest among people who had avoided crypto simply because they didn’t understand it, while those who already viewed crypto as a bad investment were unmoved. Researchers said the pattern helps explain how speculative bubbles form, since gains attract new buyers who push prices higher still.