George Santos Settles With CFTC for $35,000 Over Kalshi Prediction Market Bet

Former expelled Congressman George Santos has agreed to pay $35,000 to settle charges from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after regulators accused him of manipulating a Kalshi prediction market bet tied to the 2026 State of the Union address.

CFTC Alleges Manipulative Trading Pattern

According to the CFTC, Santos placed trades on a contract predicting whether he would attend the February State of the Union, generating more than $17,500 in profit.

Regulators said that roughly two weeks before the event, Santos made public statements about his attendance that significantly moved the contract’s price. In one instance, while holding a position betting he would attend, Santos posted on social media about what he planned to wear to the event, a post that was followed within hours by a price increase, allowing him to exit the trade at a profit. He also posted updates about his travel to Washington, D.C., which regulators said further influenced pricing.

Settlement Includes Trading Ban and Profit Disgorgement

The CFTC said Santos acted willfully or, at minimum, recklessly, by trading on an outcome he could personally influence while making misleading public statements to benefit his position. As part of the settlement, Santos agreed to give up his profits, accept a cease-and-desist order, and comply with a three-year ban from futures trading. He neither admitted nor denied the agency’s findings.

Santos’ Attorney Denies Intent to Deceive

Santos’ counsel, Joseph W. Murray, said this was Santos’ first time trading on a prediction market and that he had genuinely planned to attend the State of the Union, booking travel accordingly. Murray said Santos only shifted to a “no” position after winter weather disrupted his travel plans, adding that Santos never concealed his intentions and had no motive to manipulate the market.