Glassnode Points to Signs of Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Forming

Bitcoin’s largest hodler group from the last cycle peak may be signaling the early stages of a bear market bottom, according to fresh onchain data from analytics platform Glassnode.

Watching Realized Losses From 1-2 Year Holders

Glassnode’s lead research analyst, highlighted realized loss volume among bitcoin holders who bought their coins one to two years ago as one of the clearest indicators for spotting when a bear market is nearing its end. This group largely purchased BTC between July 2024 and July 2025, a period when bitcoin climbed from around $62,800 to $107,000, leaving many of these buyers now sitting on losses.

Data shows realized losses on a 30-day rolling basis recently peaked above $75 million before beginning to decline.

Why This Group Matters

As frustration builds from sustained underperformance, this cohort tends to gradually increase the pace at which it sells at a loss. Historically, bear markets haven’t found a stable floor until this specific group has largely finished offloading its holdings.

$69,000 Emerges as Next Key Level

Beyond realized losses, other onchain signals are also in focus. Stochastic RSI readings on One month charts are showing patterns consistent with previous market reversals, according to earlier analysis.

Short-Term Holder Cost Basis in Focus

Glassnode’s latest newsletter also flagged the average cost basis of short-term bitcoin holders, sitting around $69,000, as the next major resistance level for bulls to clear. This level notably overlaps with bitcoin’s previous all-time highs from the 2021 bull cycle.