Strategist Sees Treasury Buybacks as Catalyst for Bitcoin’s Path to $180,000

Macro strategist Mark Connors says the US Treasury’s plan for regular buybacks of long-term government debt could mark a turning point for bitcoin, potentially removing a key headwind that has weighed on crypto markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday the government expects to conduct routine buybacks and may expand their size well beyond the previously announced $4 billion, aiming to show that bond yields don’t fully reflect underlying market fundamentals.

Bitcoin Reacts as Yields Stay Elevated

The comments came as the 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.68%, while bitcoin extended its gains to approach $73,000. Connors, chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions, called the buyback move an important early signal that the government is responding to pressure from rising long-term borrowing costs.

Why This Matters for Bitcoin

High Treasury yields typically pull investment capital toward government bonds and away from riskier assets like bitcoin. By supporting bond prices through buybacks, the Treasury could help ease that pressure. Connors expects the current small-scale purchases to eventually grow into the $10 billion to $30 billion monthly range, far surpassing initial figures.

Revised Bitcoin Outlook

This shift has led Connors to reconsider his previous expectation that bitcoin would stay muted until November based on its typical four-year cycle. He also pointed to potential changes in bank capital requirements, specifically the supplementary leverage ratio, as another factor that could free up banks to absorb more government debt, something he believes could push bitcoin toward its first major target of $180,000, with a broader cycle range of $180,000 to $360,000 through 2030.

Near-Term Levels and Risks to Watch

Separately, Charles Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli noted a significant cluster of leveraged bitcoin short positions around $72,000, meaning a sustained move above that level could trigger further short covering and upward price pressure. Still, Connors cautioned that bitcoin’s near-term outlook depends heavily on progress with the CLARITY Act, warning that a lack of movement by September 15 could pull prices back down from current levels.