Suspicious Prediction Market Bets Landed Just Before Polls Came Out

Researchers at Vanderbilt University say a Polymarket account put close to $200,000 on Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts winning re-election on Oct. 31. About an hour later, the New York Times and Siena College released a poll showing Ricketts ahead. A Friday report in the New York Times said the trader walked away with more than $77,000, though it remains unclear whether the person had any inside knowledge of the poll. The same user reportedly placed other large wagers, including on Kalshi, and two recent Times/Siena polls were affected in total.

Reactions From Researchers and Platforms

Calls for a Closer Look

Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security said the pattern is hard to wave away as chance and deserves further investigation. Polymarket confirmed it had noticed the trades and had opened its own review, while Kalshi chose not to comment.

Insider Trading Concerns on Prediction Markets

The Maduro Bet Case

The episode revives worries about how prediction markets handle private information. In April, a US Army soldier was charged after reportedly making over $400,000 on Polymarket. Prosecutors at the Department of Justice say Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke helped plan and carry out the January operation that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas. They allege he used that knowledge to buy yes shares in contracts on Maduro leaving office by Jan. 31 and on Trump invoking war powers against Venezuela by the same date.