Anthropic IPO Valuation Built Around $190 Billion Revenue Forecast for 2028

Anthropic is preparing for what could become one of the largest public listings on record, with bankers and investors valuing the AI company based on projected revenue roughly two years into the future. According to people familiar with the matter, Anthropic expects 2028 revenue between $190 billion and $200 billion, a figure far above the $47 billion revenue run rate the company reported as recently as May.

Wall Street Looks Further Ahead Than Usual

Bankers and investors are using enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on these forward projections, an approach more common for fast-growing software firms without established profit margins. Looking two years out is unusual even by those standards, reflecting how quickly Anthropic’s business has scaled and the difficulty of setting benchmarks for a company still investing heavily in AI infrastructure. Similar forward-looking approaches were used ahead of recent high-profile listings, where companies cited multi-year revenue projections to justify their valuations.

Comparable Companies Help Set the Benchmark

Cloud infrastructure and enterprise software firms, along with a major aerospace company known for high-growth valuations, are being used as reference points ahead of Anthropic’s analyst day. These companies currently trade at revenue multiples ranging from roughly 40 to more than 50 times expected annual revenue, giving investors a framework for pricing Anthropic’s future growth.

Spending Now, Profits Expected Later

Anthropic’s current earnings don’t fully reflect the economics investors expect at scale, given heavy spending on computing power, model training, and hiring. Still, the company’s growth trajectory has been steep, with revenue run rate climbing from about $9 billion at the end of last year to more than $47 billion by May, and second-quarter revenue projected above $10.9 billion, more than double the prior quarter. The company has said its revenue run rate has grown more than tenfold annually for three consecutive years.

Investors Remain Divided on Long-Term Value

Some investment professionals note that while a valuation in the trillions is plausible, questions remain about whether such pricing can hold over time and whether AI’s productivity gains will ultimately justify the scale of investment being made today.