Has Bitcoin Bottomed? Analysts Remain Divided as Price Holds Near $64K

Bitcoin trades around $64,000, down almost 50% from its October 2025 all time high above $126,000, a shallower drop than previous cycles despite the bull run falling short of past highs. That October peak was driven by ETF inflows, post-halving momentum, and institutional demand. Since then, analysts have split sharply over what the decline means and whether a bottom has already formed.

Bullish Case: Bottom May Already Be In

Standard Chartered and other institutional desks argue Bitcoin may have bottomed last month, pointing to structural ETF and treasury company demand supporting long-term capital flows.

Cautious Voices See More Downside Ahead

Bitcoin remains in a downcycle likely to break below recent lows, potentially revisiting the $56,000 to $52,000 range before possibly falling to $40,000 to $45,000. Can expects a low around October 2026, though Fed rate cuts or the CLARITY Act passing could move that timeline earlier. Citibank echoed this caution, cutting its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $82,000 from $112,000 on July 1.

Current conditions as a late stage bear market with sentiment as weak as after the 2022 FTX collapse, but stopped short of calling a confirmed bottom, saying one is likely close but not yet visible.

A Different Framing: Liquidity Competition, Not Just Price

Bitcoin now competes directly with AI and equity markets for global capital, suggesting the real question isn’t when Bitcoin bottoms but when crypto becomes attractive again relative to other assets. This dynamic could mean Bitcoin builds a prolonged base rather than forming a sharp reversal.

No Consensus on What a “Bottom” Even Means

Beyond price targets, analysts disagree on how to define Bitcoin’s cycle structure altogether, reflecting a market increasingly shaped by ETFs, macro liquidity, and competition from other capital-hungry sectors like AI.