US and Iran Explore Phased Deal to Reopen Hormuz and End Blockade

US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased way out of the nearly seven month war. Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington would lift its economic blockade, with Tehran possibly gaining access to frozen assets. Neither side wants to give up its leverage first, and any deal must be durable enough for both to trust.

Iran’s Stance on Hormuz Transit Fees

Regional sources say Tehran may move its transit fee demand into a side attachment, since ending the blockade is now more urgent. Gulf states reject the fees, and Iran is not expected to give up administrative control of the strait. A senior Iranian official said Iran’s “fingers are on the trigger” and that diplomacy’s chances are extremely low.

Midterm Elections and Trump’s Deal Timeline

Trump has said a deal could come after the November 3 midterms. Former US negotiator Dennis Ross sees only a 30% chance before the vote, though a deal could help lower oil and gasoline prices. Gulf leaders want clarity on Washington’s endgame.Wti crude down -3% on this news.