US Intelligence Warns Putin May Test NATO Before Ukraine War Ends

New US intelligence assessments suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin could attempt a limited strike against a NATO member state within the next few years, potentially before the war in Ukraine concludes, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Range of Possible Scenarios

The intelligence reports outline several potential forms of aggression, ranging from cyberattacks to small-scale ground incursions. These warnings come as US officials note significant shortages in critical munitions needed to counter Russia or China, with stockpiles depleted by supplies sent to Ukraine and the US conflict with Iran. At-risk weapons reportedly include long-range precision missiles, tactical missile systems, and Stinger surface-to-air missiles.

Shift in US Assessment

US officials say their previous assumption that Putin would avoid provoking NATO while fighting in Ukraine changed earlier this year, as he faces mounting pressure at home while Ukrainian drone strikes damage Russian forces and oil infrastructure. Officials believe Putin’s goal in targeting NATO would be to fracture the alliance, with concerns centering on him becoming more unpredictable as he feels increasingly cornered.

Timeline and Probability

Intelligence assessments suggest potential Russian action could occur between this autumn and 2029, with a ground incursion viewed as low probability but gradually increasing. This follows earlier warnings from NATO’s eastern flank countries, with Lithuania and Latvia already taking steps to strengthen security amid concerns over possible Russian provocations.